Ukraine is preparing for changes in trade with the European Union: what will happen after June 6 4 June 2025
Kyiv • UNN
From June 6, the EU will restore quotas on imports of Ukrainian agricultural products. Experts estimate Ukraine's possible losses from 1.5 to 3 billion euros.
On Friday, June 6, the European Union will begin collecting duties on imports of Ukrainian agricultural products. A correspondent of UNN found out what are the political reasons for this decision and how difficult its economic consequences will be for Ukraine.
What preceded the introduction of duties
The so-called autonomous trade measures (ATM), which abolish duties on Ukrainian goods, are in effect since the full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022, to allow Ukraine to export its agricultural products by land.
But EU countries bordering Ukraine, including Poland, Hungary, Romania and Slovakia, complained that Ukrainian imports were undermining domestic prices and triggering unrest among farmers.
The European Commission introduced an "emergency brake" limiting imports of food products such as eggs, poultry, sugar, oats, corn, cereals and honey, which can be activated once import levels exceed a certain threshold.
The measures expire in early June and this time, reportedly, will not be extended.
EU duties for Ukraine: what is known
The European Conservative reports that the EU will restore quotas on imports of Ukrainian agricultural products starting on June 6. This effectively ends the suspension of trade restrictions that have been in place since the beginning of the full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine. This step was taken after the approval of "transitional measures" by a majority of member states.
EU spokesman for agriculture Balazs Ujvari said the decision marks a return to the 2017 DCFTA agreement, rather than an extension of the Autonomous Trade Measures (ATM) that have allowed Ukraine duty-free access since 2022. Quotas will now be in effect until the end of the year, covering 7/12 of the annual volumes.
Politico notes that critics of the innovation believe that abolishing quotas could seriously harm Ukraine's war-weakened economy. Dmytro Natalukha, head of the Verkhovna Rada's economic committee, said the changes could cost three billion euros — about 70% of Ukraine's expected growth in 2025. "Unfortunately, this promise has not been fulfilled," he said, criticizing the EU for failing to implement a more flexible replacement system.
Brussels disputes this figure, with Leon Delvaux of the Directorate-General for Trade claiming that the actual losses are closer to €1.5 billion.
Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk has acknowledged lobbying for the changes, despite claims of support for Ukraine. Critics say that with elections approaching in Poland, Tusk has sided with Brussels bureaucrats on engagement with Ukraine.
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Despite Kyiv's offer to restrict imports of sensitive goods, negotiations on a permanent agreement remain stalled.
"Sanctions" against Ukraine
The political reasons lie in the fact that the European troika (Germany, France and Great Britain) has a very ambiguous political situation. For example, the growing influence of the "Alternative for Germany", its rating is indicative. Although it is distanced from the coalition, this is a red light that is already flashing. British Prime Minister Keith Starmer is being breathed down his neck by Nigel Farage's Reform Party. These are actually "Trumpists" in British politics. In France, Macron is holding on, but everything is not so simple. And that is why they are trying to somehow balance politics and economics
The political scientist added that the European partners decided to achieve this goal, balancing politics and economics, by abolishing the customs visa-free regime for Ukraine
It can only be balanced by abolishing the customs visa-free regime that was in place until recently. It's like imposing economic sanctions on Ukraine. That's if we call things by their proper names. We are actually being told that we need to support Ukraine, but in fact it turns out that we are losing about three billion euros
He also recalled that the issue of depriving Ukraine of customs visa-free regime was already being promoted in Europe. In particular, during the blockade of the border by Polish farmers.
"This issue was lobbied by Polish farmers. So, political pressure has led to the cancellation of this customs visa-free regime," the political scientist said.
He also added that in this way, the governments of European countries are trying to avoid the coming to power of the so-called "Trumpists" in their countries, but in fact this is done at the expense of Ukraine.
"In fact, they are trying to stop the path of "Trumpization" of Europe. This is not bad for Ukraine, but somehow it turns out that this policy is implemented at the expense of our state. You can think like that," Zolotarev emphasized.
Not everything is so bad
However, the assessment of the situation by economists differs from the somewhat gloomy vision of political scientists. In particular, economist Oleg Pendzin explains that only some quotas on Ukrainian agricultural products will be returned on June 6.
On June 6, quotas on Ukrainian agricultural products are being returned to the European Union. This means that only a certain amount of Ukrainian agricultural products will be traded freely
He also emphasized that, in fact, Ukraine and the European Union are returning to the level of relations that existed before the full-scale Russian invasion.
"The total quota is very small. In fact, the one that was in 2021. We are simply entering the state that was before the full-scale invasion," Pendzin said.
Pendzin is also optimistic about the possible blows to the Ukrainian economy as a result of these duties, believing that globally they will not affect the situation.
"Ukrainian farmers will simply lose three billion euros. And that's it," the economist summed up.
